Oscars

I have never seen so few of the Best Picture nominees. Typically, I see them all or all but one by awards time. This year, I've only seen Sideways.

But I'm still a betting woman. It's a close call between Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. Even though Aviator (except Cate Blanchett) received mostly appalling reviews Scorcesse is campaigning really hard and I bet the Academy feels like they owe him won. MDB because it's the most talked about movie of the year and Clint didn't win last year -- and after seeing Mystic River, that loss was justifiable. Sideways might be the dark horse split vote a la Chariots of Fire, but the odds are against it.

For what it's worth, and this year it's about a nickel, my predictions follow. You can laugh at me on Monday.

Director: Marty or Clint, in tandem with picture
Actor: Jamie Foxx (Don Cheadle is my favorite)
Actress: Annette Benning, but Hilary Swank if MDB takes it
Supporting Actor: Clive Owen or Thomas Haden Church -- they won't give it to Jamie Foxx in 2 categories
Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, unless Virginia Madsen gets the token nod to Sideways
Writing Adapted: MDB
Writing Original: Eternal Sunshine... which should have been nominated for picture
Editing: winner of picture
Cinematography: Aviator, by virtue of being the only film nominated in this category up for best picture (although there might be a nod to House of Flying Daggers but I seriously doubt it)